Author of the scenarios, Albert Bressand,
introduced the debate by pointing to the "dual
crisis of security and trust" that has changed
the world since 2001. The 9/11 terrorist attacks, the
instability in the Middle East, issues of energy security
and the collapse of failed states have led to a security
crisis. The bursting of the internet bubble and several
corporate scandals (Enron, Parmalat) have created a new wave
of distrust in the market. The state has responded to this
dual crisis by taking on a new role of coercion and
regulation to restore security and trust.The Shell
report identifies three key drivers
of world development:
- market incentives (efficiency)
- the force of community (social cohesion and
justice)
- coercion and regulation by the state
(security)
Based on the interplay and trade-offs between these
drivers, the report identifies three possible future worlds
(the 'Trilemma Triangle'):
- "low trust globalisation": more
globalisation and market liberalisation but also more
coercive states and regulators; trust problem not
resolved
- "open doors": heightened
globalisation and more cohesive civil societies crisis
of trust and security has been resolved; use of the
precautionary principle, use of more soft power
- "flags": states rally around
the flag, trust fragmented, national societies split
into diverse groups; efficiency and the market take a
backseat to security and solidarity, more protectionism
These three scenarios were also used to calculate
possible average growth rates for
each. The "Open Doors" economy would have the highest growth
(3.8%), "Low Trust Globalisation would lead to 3.1% growth
and "Flags" would be seriously lower (2.6%).
The report looks at the implications of the three
scenarios for the US, China and the European
Union. The European Union would fare best in the
"Open Doors" ('Schengen Plus'). In the "low trust
globalisation" scenario, Bressand sees an "acrimonious
reassessment" of the EU with à la carte Europe, and the
"Flags" world would lead to 25 states on diverging courses.
The energy chapter of the Scenarios 2025 report is
particularly interesting. 2004 has been an "energy
watershed", according to the report. "The energy
sector appears to have entered a new era, as renewed worries
are increasingly expressed about the long-term balance
between energy demand and supply". Three major
discontinuities have led to this deeper structural change:
- the relinking of global economic
growth and energy consumption (the
decreasing trend of energy growth and GDP growth has
been reversed)
- uncertainties over reserves and energy
security: the report is surprisingly open
about the seriousness of the "peak oil debate" ("the
increased risk of reaching a peak in oil supplies in the
relatively near future has been debated for decades.
However, the failure of previous warnings to materialise
is no reason to dismiss the new ones")
- the emergence of carbon as a
commodity, related to the climate change
issue which gets a lot of attention in the report
During the debate, former Swedish Prime Minister Carl
Bildt emphasised the new energy insecurity.
Joking that God must have been in a bad mood when He
allocated energy sources, Bildt highlighted the danger of
most of the current energy reserves being in geopolitically
sensitive regions such as the Middle East and Russia.
Polish historian and MEP Bronislaw Geremek
warned against Russia's ambitions to revive its global power
position by using its energy wealth. He also demanded more
thinking about the future of democracy. "In 2025, the
biggest economy in the world could well be China, a
non-democratic state," Geremek said. The Polish former
foreign minister also challenged Commissioner Piebalgs.
"The Commission has been unable to formulate an energy
security policy, in terms of security of dependence".
Energy Commissioner Andris Piebalgs
defended the EU's renewed attention towards a common energy
policy. "Energy has moved high up the EU's external
relations agenda", Piebalgs stated. He also pointed to the
different dialogues that have been set up with energy
producers to secure stable relations.
Carl Bildt reacted to the
commissioner by saying that the EU "has been living in a
fool's paradise for too long" concerning energy policy. He
also underlined the danger of increasing competition between
nation states for dwindling energy resources.
Shell CEO Jeroen van der Veer
addressed the need to develop "green fossil fuels", using
the example of the use of "green coal" with CO2 storage.
Other EU leaders have also been pushing recently for a
stronger and more unified European energy policy as a result
of high oil prices and the geopolitical challenges of energy
policy (Ukraine-Russia 'gas war'). In a recent interview
with Der Spiegel, new German Chancellor Angela
Merkel said: "It has become clear to us [...]
how what is really an economic issue, namely the purchase
and delivery of gas, is deeply political".