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The Wall Street Journal: Oil Firms Seen Soft-Pedaling Record Profits: "Wall Street is looking for Shell and Total to net approximately $5.3 billion and $3.6 billion, respectively.": Tuesday 25 October 2005
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Energy
By RUSSELL GOLD
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
October 25, 2005; Page C1

The world's five biggest oil companies are expected to collectively report record-breaking third-quarter earnings of almost $28 billion beginning this week. Don't expect to hear a lot of crowing.

Energy companies are facing pressure for raking in banner profits while consumers are paying high gasoline prices and are soon expected to face high home-heating bills. The result is that many analysts believe the oil giants will soft-pedal their record earnings. In addition, companies could load up on special charges, such as repairs to hurricane-damaged infrastructure, and emphasize possible marketing losses.

"They are not going to beat the drum because there is so much political pressure out there," says J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. oil analyst Jennifer Rowland. "At the end of the day, they are going to have great numbers and the outlook for the fourth quarter and first quarter is stellar." J.P. Morgan has an investment-banking relationship with all five of the largest publicly traded oil companies: Exxon Mobil Corp., BP PLC, Royal Dutch Shell PLC, Total SA and Chevron Corp. Ms. Rowland rates Chevron a "buy" and Exxon a "hold." J.P. Morgan has "buy" ratings on Royal Dutch and BP and a "hold" on Total.

[oil and gas stocks]

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita slammed into the Gulf of Mexico energy hub during the third quarter, busting up offshore oil and natural-gas platforms and idling refineries on shore. But the idled production capacity also drove up crude-oil and natural-gas prices and fattened refining margins for the oil giants. And the higher profits that the oil companies will reap from higher energy prices will more than offset the lost production from the hurricanes, analysts figure.

Nonetheless, nervousness has crept into the markets.

After rising for the first nine months of this year, stock prices for these oil giants began sliding in late September. Most are down 10% to 15% since hitting peaks in mid-September. Energy prices, too, have been tumbling in recent weeks, partially because of early indications that the high prices have begun to depress gasoline use. The price of a barrel of oil, which topped $70 a barrel in September, closed yesterday at $60.32 in New York Mercantile Exchange trading.

Many oil analysts think the market has overreacted. They expect the energy companies to keep chalking up huge earnings numbers for at least another couple of quarters. And they sniff at recent federal data that show U.S. gasoline consumption fell 2.2% in the past four weeks from the year-earlier period.

"We believe this data is unreliable, at best," notes Citigroup Inc. analyst Doug Leggate, because the data measure products leaving refineries -- and so many refineries are still damaged by the hurricanes. Citigroup has provided non-investment-banking services to all five of the largest oil companies and has provided investment-banking services to BP, Chevron and Total. Mr. Leggate has "buy" ratings on Chevron and Exxon.

BP, the world's second-largest publicly traded oil company by market capitalization behind Exxon Mobil, is scheduled to report earnings today, the first major oil company to do so. Wall Street is looking for BP to post quarterly earnings of about $6.1 billion, before any unanticipated charges, according to analysts' predictions compiled by Thomson Financial.

Earlier this month, BP gave a preview of the potentially favorable economics created by the hurricanes. The British oil company said the hurricanes would cost it at least $700 million in lost production and damage repair. Don't cry for BP. Higher crude-oil prices and world-wide refining margins, however, will significantly boost pretax profit. According to a rough "rule of thumb" measurement provided by BP, that profit will at least mitigate hurricane-related losses and could offset them entirely.

Three other oil companies -- Exxon, Chevron and Shell -- report later this week, and Total reports early next month. Analysts expect Exxon to earn $8.6 billion, before any unanticipated charges, and Chevron $4.2 billion, according to Thomson Financial. Wall Street is looking for Shell and Total to net approximately $5.3 billion and $3.6 billion, respectively.

Oil companies are likely to highlight losses in their marketing operations -- their wholesale distribution and service-stations networks. Investors shouldn't fret. Oil companies purposely have been keeping gasoline prices lower at their branded stations than at many independent competitors to head off any movement in Congress to slap the oil companies with windfall-profits taxes. Once again, any marketing losses will be more than offset by huge gains in their refining operations.

In the short term, there is really only one question that matters to investors: How long can oil and gas prices stay at such lofty levels?

At least awhile, says Nicole Decker, Bear, Stearns & Co.'s energy analyst. Supply can't be increased quickly, she argues, and "demand remains fairly robust." Costs are rising for these companies, but so far not enough to crimp profits.

Confidence in oil stocks remains high, even after two large block trades sent stock prices down last week. On Oct. 18, 24.5 million shares of Exxon Mobil were sold; two days later, 5.6 million shares of Chevron changed hands. Stock analysts said, if anything, it made the stocks look more attractive relative to the broader market. "Overall, nothing has changed fundamentally," says Ms. Decker, who suggested the selloffs were probably just investors locking in profits.

The oil giants have become cash-generating machines. The five largest are expected to end the third quarter with about $90 billion in cash on their books. The cash is piling up, even though the companies are aggressively increasing their dividends and ramping up share-repurchase programs. Oil consultant John S. Herold Inc. expects the five companies to spend $39.3 billion on share repurchases this year, up 60% from the $24.5 billion in 2004.

The cash hoards are ratcheting up pressure on the companies to do something with the money, lest they become political targets. Ms. Decker of Bear Stearns expects increased spending on projects to develop the natural-gas industry, both domestically and internationally. Chevron and Exxon have been non-investment-banking clients of Bear in the past year.

Write to Russell Gold at russell.gold@wsj.com

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