HOUSTON, Nov. 14 - Unexpectedly warm weather has bathed much of the United States in recent weeks, but fears persist that a classic energy shock may be unfolding as the nation heads into winter.
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This time, though, the coming squeeze is in natural gas rather than oil.
Executives at companies that consume large amounts of natural gas are warning - almost screaming - about the costs they expect to face over the coming months.
"Our monthly natural gas bill has doubled since August, from $700,000 to $1.4 million," said Fletcher Steele, president of Pine Hall Brick in Winston-Salem, N.C. Mr. Steele said he planned to shut half of his production in January, when natural gas prices are expected to resume climbing again because of cold weather.
It is a problem that has been building for several years.
Thanks to a huge buildup of natural-gas-fired electricity plants in the 1990's even as exploration has slowed, demand has outstripped supply; the nation now depends on natural gas for 24 percent of its energy requirements, compared with 23 percent for coal and 40 percent for oil.
The threat of higher prices and potential shortages has led to a showdown over the most ambitious push to expand domestic drilling since the 1970's. The energy industry and major consumers of natural gas have been aggressively pushing Congress to open areas for exploration.
While they have been rebuffed so far - Republican leaders in the House were forced to pull back on a budget bill that would have opened the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska and coastal waters off several other states to drilling - energy suppliers are expected to keep pounding at the door.
The dispute over expanding drilling is related to the fierce opposition from environmentalists, real estate investors and residents of areas where the industry would like to put operations intended to increase imports of natural gas.
In the meantime, higher prices for the fuel are rippling through the economy. And with more than half of the nation's homes heated by natural gas, millions of Americans are already bracing for big price increases this winter. The Energy Information Administration recently predicted that the cost of heating a typical home with natural gas could rise by more than 40 percent in coming months, or an average of $306 a household.
At the same time, officials are warning businesses that they face possible disruptions in the natural gas supply in some states this winter. Under long-established rules, utilities will give the highest priority to supplying natural gas to homes, possibly cutting off some companies and forcing some manufacturers to turn to other energy sources.
Beyond the fear of supply disruptions, higher natural gas prices have stoked concern of price increases cascading through the economy, with the most recent monthly inflation gauge at 1.2 percent in September, the largest increase in a quarter-century. The United States now has the highest natural gas prices of any industrial country, surpassing those in Germany, the Netherlands and China.
The prices have been pulling back from a post-hurricane spike in October that sent them above $14 per thousand cubic feet, but they remain at unusually high levels, with the futures contract for December closing at $11.61 on Monday. Only three years ago, during a glut, natural gas was selling for as little as $2 per thousand cubic feet.
High prices are inflicting pain across the country, hitting hard at utilities in the mountain states, grain elevators in the Midwest and chemical manufacturers along the Gulf Coast. Announcements of job losses in energy-intensive industries are mounting.
For instance, Lyondell Chemical of Houston said last month that it was shutting a foam chemicals plant in Lake Charles, La., cutting about 280 jobs. The reason was higher energy costs, the company said, though Lyondell also cited damage from Hurricane Rita.
Other companies unable to pass all their higher natural gas costs to customers are starting to announce big losses. For example, CMS Energy, Michigan's largest natural gas utility, reported a $263 million loss this month.
The hurricanes made a bad situation worse. The American Chemistry Council estimates that 100,000 jobs at companies that rely largely on natural gas have been lost since prices for the fuel began climbing in 2000. Chemical companies have been particularly outspoken in calls for the Bush administration and Congress to focus on curbing consumption and repairing energy infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico.